Two good winners on the update yesterday, Baccarat going in at Meydan, backed at 3/1, a 10p deduction in the pound with a late non runner ( Steady Pace), then Chef Des Obeaux won easily at Haydock, 13/8 returned, he handled the underfoot conditions well.

Todays Free tip is as follows:

Horse: Scorpian Sid

Time: 2:30 Ffos Los

Current Odds: 11/10

In what looks a novice hurdle that will be between my selection and Oxwich Bay, Scorpian Sid is lightly raced, a good winner last time over 2m 4F, the drop back to 2 miles should not pose a major problem, he handles soft ground and likes to be ridden right up with the pace, I can see him making the running, and galloping on strongly to win.  Of rivals, Oxwich Bay is a course winner over further, he will be difficult to beat, as he is vey consistent, his only blip was his last run when he made some jumping errors, before falling last time, that is my main reason for preferring Scorpian Sid.

Update: 1:50 pm

Bit disappointed with Captain Cattistock in 1:15 Ascot, he found zero when asked to finish his race off.  I am backing Baccarat 2:30 Meydan, he is around 3/1, he has to find a neck improvement to beat the top weight Faatinah, from the last time they met. It’s a competitive race with Steady Pace not out of it.  The ground is very testing at Haydock where Chef Des Obeaux 4:25 runs, I have halved my stake bet on him because of conditions, although he has won on soft, heavy Haydock ground is very sticky as a rule, he is 11/8 with some firms.

Another day of profit, Broken Quest winning at Sandown yesterday, backed at 6/4, he was a game winner in a race that was a useful handicap, the second horse is very progressive and both horses are worth following.

Today is as usual difficult, so much racing and lots of good competitive races at most meetings.

Today’s free tip is as follows:

Horse: Captain Cattistock

Time: 1:15 Ascot

Current Odds: 2/1

A good winner last time at Wincanton, he is a big progressive type who acts on the ground ok, he has won going right handed and is coming off a good run. Of rivals, Count Meribel is top rated , but is coming here of a poor last run, which is a concern, if he bounces back to his best form he is the main danger I think.  Dame De Compaigne is another that won a novice hurdle well and then ran poorly when stepping up in class, she is clearly talented but also races here after a poor run, she must be better than her latest flop, as her trainer wouldn’t run her at Ascot if he didn’t think she was better than her last run.

I will update later with a possible horse in a later race, slight worry on how testing the ground is, so I will watch a race or two first, Update will be around 2pm.

Stealth was disappointing, only third at Lingfield.  I am going to back Broken Quest 4:35 Sandown, currently 6/4 with firms.  He has good claimer riding, was an impressive winner last time, he can win again under his penalty.

A nice winner yesterday, Don’t Give Up won well at Meydan, backed from 6/4-11/10, a profit on the day, my other selection Kapdad was beaten a neck into second.

Todays Free tip is  as follows:

Horse: Stealth

Time: 1:30 Lingfield

Current Odds: 5/2

With a small field of 4 in this novice stakes, Stealth has a good chance of winning this.  He ran well last time when second, with cheekpieces today for the first time, connections must feel he lacks a bit of focus, he is fit and improving, hopefully he can keep going forward and be ridden positively to win this.  Of rivals, all have got something going for them, Jazirat is the one to beat I think, he has shown form on grass, but should be ok on the synthetic surface, Vale Of Kent won well on debut, but was below par last time, if he produces his first run form he is dangerous, even with a winners penalty.

I will update later with a horse at Sandown , I just want to watch a race or two at the track first, around 2pm I should know if it is ok.

No changes at Meydan, Don’t Give Up looks as though he will take a bit of beating 3:40, as I mentioned in my blog last night.

Gold Town is very short to back at 1/3, but if he has a clear run, I can see him winning well in the UAE 2,000 guineas at Meydan.

Todays additional Free tip is as follows:

Horse: Kapdad

Time: 2:05 Fontwell

Current Odds: 5/4

In a novice hurdle, that looks fairly ordinary.  Kapdad has shown enough to win this, his jumping has to be a little better than it has been, he tended to jump slightly big when third at Kempton last time, he should handle the ground ok, and his jockey knows him well.  Of rivals, Night Of Glory is not a natural over hurdles, he lacks fluency, he has been slightly disappointing so far in his two runs over obstacles.  If he gets his jumping together, he is dangerous.

Nice winner today with Carouse, backed at 11/8, heavily supported in the betting, returning at 8/11.  He won very easily, a small profit on the day as my other selection was virtually pulled up in the straight at Lingfield, Queen Of Kalahari clearly had something wrong when asked for her effort, hopefully it is not too serious.

Thursdays Free tip is as follows:

Horse: Don’t Give Up

Time: 3.40 Meydan

Current Odds: 6/4

I am putting my selection on tonight, as the race is on dirt, so not too concerned about going changes.  A comfortable winner last time over the course and distance, this horse can follow up again in this race.  He had good form on turf, and with a small weight rise, I think he can defy that and win again.  Of rivals, Alabaster is a stable mate of my selection, he is a horse that possibly doesn’t give everything he can in a finish, he has talent but needs to improve to win, Saltarin Dubai was second to Don’t Give Up recently, he is slightly better off at the weights, but I think he won’t be good enough to win, he has place claims.

I will update tomorrow, probably around 1pm.

Fair amount of rain forecast, so I’m going to watch the turf racing and decide if to back one in a later race.

One more on the all weather, I think could be some value is:

Horse: Queen Of Kalahari

Time: 3:20 Lingfield

Current Odds: 5/2 without fav

I am backing this filly without the fav(Snaffled), she has consistent form last year, ran a good race behind a fair performer in her only all weather run, she has changed hands since, with a new trainer now.  She has not ran since October, so taking her fitness on trust, I think she is value without the fav at 5/2.  Callum Shepherd takes off a useful 3lb, and she has ran well off a pound below her current rating, when second at Kempton.  Of rivals, the two she opposes with Snaffled out of the equation, Poetic Imagination is quirky, she has ability but wears blinkers for a reason, Samovar is having his first try away from the fibresand of Southwell, he also wears blinkers, I think he is more effective over 5f,

Good winner today with Volatile winning easily by 8l at Southwell, he was backed from 7/4-11/8, although he did touch 2/1 through the day.  I am putting a selection on tonight for tomorrow, it is on the all weather, so no ground changes .

Wednesday’s Free tip is as follows:

Horse: Carouse

Time: 1:50 Lingfield

Current Odds: 11/8

Currently his price is lowering, he has won at Lingfield over 7f, tomorrow he races over 1 mile, which should not be a problem.  He is top rated, and possibly has scope to keep improving.  He will take all the beating in this, although Bungee Jump is weighted favourably to be a danger, I’m just not totally convinced she will be as good over 1 mile as she has been when winning over shorter. Breakfast ran well last time, he has to take a big step forward to beat Carouse giving him 3lb.

I will Update tomorrow around 1pm, as I am just going to see what the weather does overnight.

A good winner last night at Wolverhampton.  Star Archer 7/4 was a cosy winner, nice profit on the day.

Todays Free tip is as follows:

Horse: Volatile

Time: 4:30 Southwell

Current Odds: 7/4

In what looks a novice stakes that will not take a lot of winning, Volatile has the best form, on show.  He races for the first time on Fibresand, but his style of racing should suit , and he is a big strong horse who should handle conditions.  His jockey knows him well and he has won over 6f.  Of rivals, Light Laughter has ran over various trips, she faded late over 7f last time, she is slightly favoured at the weights as she has a claimer taking 7lb off her back, plus she has yet to win so has no penalty. Essential is a winner over 7f on the track, so he handles the surface, the drop in trip should be ok but is rated 19lb inferior to Volatile, he needs a big step forward to beat Volatile and Light Laughter, the others are unexposed, so hard to evaluate.