Yesterday was a day for favourites getting turned over ! I lost count of the ones that got beat, great if you were laying them. Looking at the racing today there are a few short priced ones again that may get beat. I am not a great fan of laying, but i think when you are, you need at least two strong dangers, and don’t lay at over 2/1, or it can be expensive !
One stable to follow over the next few weeks is Owen Burrows, he had 3 winners yesterday. Up to then he has had a quiet season, but trains a lot of Hamdan Al Maktoum horses, so quality types, that must of had something wrong in the earlier part of the year, as he was not running many.
It was sad to read that Sam Morsehead has died of cancer, he was only 63. I didn’t really know him very well, but he was a good jockey, having rode over 400 winners. I know he was a nice guy, and had been clerk of the course at Perth for a number of years, before having to stop in 2015, due to his health.
Another nice winner for my subscribers yesterday. I advised backing Turgenev (7:00 Mewcastle) at 10/11 on Sunday evening, he was heavily backed into 8/15 ! He bolted up by 6 Lengths, I always think any winner is a good price, at 10/11 he was good value.
September is currently over 11 points (£1100) in profit, not bad for a £50 monthly subscription!
Todays racing post has headlines, that Gimcrack winner Emaraaty Ana has been sold to Sheikh Obaid Al Maktoum, for what price is not mentioned, he will be going for the Middle Park Stakes on Saturday. He is top rated, and goes for the Group 1 with a good chance. A couple of unbeaten colts he will be taking on though are Ten Kingdoms and Josh, both have looked really good, so it looks like it will be a good race.
The racing today looks competitive, the Jump Meeting at Warwick has a couple of really short priced favourites in the first two races. Both are trained by Nicky Henderson, trying to find what can beat them looks difficult. At Lingfield on the all weather surface, I hope Swordbill (3:10) can win his fourth race in 10 days, he has leading apprentice Jason Watson riding, taking a valuable 3lb off his back will help, as he has a 12lb penalty.
Some quite good cards today. Leicester has competitive fields, with some decent types running. The 4.20 which is a novice stakes race for 3 year olds and upwards, has Outbox (Frankel gelding) running with a penalty. He won well last time at Ffos Los, he was a bit weak in the market that day, but won well. He could win again, although Lilypad who is around 11/2 looks a promising type, she could well give the favourite the most to do in receipt of 12 lb.
Competitive racing at Kempton and the evening meeting at Newcastle. Some potentially nice horses running at both meetings. At least when taking an early price on one, at either track, the problem of going change is out of the equation !
Looking at todays birthday list. Former jockey Daragh O’Donohue is 46 today, he has been attached to Godolphin for many years, he was a talented rider, who rode Cape Cross to win a Group 1 win and won the Italian Derby on Central Park. He is now a work rider for the Godolphin team. I saw him in March in Dubai, he is a good man and always enjoyed a bit of banter, hope he has a good day.
Pleased to get a nice WINNER yesterday for my subscribers. Ghaiyyath was advised at 15/8 on Friday evening, was heavily backed into around 11/10, before running out a ready winner at Longchamp in a Group 3 event over 10f . He is a horse with a big future, if he stays sound. as this was his first run for a year.
Lots of rain around so a cautious day if having a bet ! If Plumpton gets a lot of rain, the ground can be really testing, clay soil gets very tacky when soft, and is really very hard work.
It was a good performance yesterday by Young Rascal at Newbury, he managed to beat Mirage Dancer by a nose in the Group 3 11f Dubai Duty Free Legacy Cup Stakes. It was a tight finish. with the winner probably coping with the soft ground better than the runner up, plus the second horse had a 3lb penalty for a Group 3 win at Goodwood, both are good horses.
Fair amount of rainfall forecast. At Ayr it will be a real slog, heavy ground, plus it is the third day of racing. The main race at the Scottish venue is the William Hill Ayr Gold Cup at 3:50. A usual open handicap, draw and being ok on the ground are essential, looking at the 25 that line up, it looks difficult. Interest betting only, Muntadab has form on all types of ground, is drawn in the middle, so has options. He would be my choice for a small EW bet at 12/1 (5places, bet365).
At Newbury where rain is forecast, Mirage Dancer 2:20 is a very good improving horse, his best form though has been on good or faster ground, so at 2/1 he will need to be as good on likely good to soft ground today, as this is a competitive race. A few improving 3 year olds in Young Rascal and Extra Elusive, plus last years winner Desert Encounter, he will handle the ground ok. I hope Mirage Dancer can defy his penalty and win.
Late post today. I have not had a bet today, some poor ground at Ayr , tough for horses to handle conditions. One stable in fine form is the Keith Dalgliesh yard, he has his horses in great shape.
Looking at the later races tonight at the. evening cards, Seek The Moon in the 7:50 could run well at decent odds. I will give an each way bet tomorrow, a rainy forecast at Newbury, the ground today was on the easy side of good, hopefully not too much will arrive. A couple of horses I follow are entered, but they don’t really want rain, so a waiting game !
It is the start of the big meeting at Ayr today. As normal for the western meeting, the ground is going to be soft. Stamina on testing ground is a must, plus the winds may well make it even harder for horse and rider to win. The main race today is the William Hill Doonside Cup Stakes, a listed race for 3 year olds and upwards, it looks competitive, if Aspetar handles the ground he could well run well at decent odds, he is an unknown on Soft/heavy ground, but I would think connections must assume he will be ok, or he would not be running.
I see that Kew Gardens is a possible runner in a few weeks in the Prix De l’Arc De Triomphe at Longchamp. He won a decent St Leger recently, but to win an Arc will be much tougher, he could run well, but I don’t think he is quite up to winning it.
I think if the ground is soft Cracksman has a good chance, if his mind is on the job ! It is likely that Frankie Dettori will ride Enable, so I am not sure who will get the leg up on Cracksman, if he runs.
Late blog post today. Racing currently at Kelso with a twilight meeting. Strong winds have caused reduced obstacles to jump, for safety reasons. Looking at the last couple of races Alfie’s Choice has a good chance in the 6:15 .
Nice to get another WINNER today for my subscribers. Vivionn 2:00 Lingfield was advised this morning at 7/4 , she won by a length under Ryan Moore. Another good day of profit, hopefully the second half of the month will be as good.
Just saw a 1-4 shot get turned over by a 20/1 shot at Redcar, just shows that there is never such a thing as a certainty!
At Kempton tonight a few interesting Novice races, worth watching at this time of year closely, as some of the bigger yards give horses a run with the future in mind, a lot of horses do not have a hard time, especially if making their debut.
The 7:00 1 mile handicap looks tricky, Ledham has a good profile and is lightly raced. He could well take a bit of beating, as he has won on an all weather surface before, and ran well on his last start.
Reflecting on the weekend racing results. It was sad to see two very good horses run well and pick up injuries that have been career ending, regards being able to race again. Alpha Centauri picked up an injury with one her front joints (ankle) and Saxon Warrior was found to have a tendon injury. Both are very valuable for stud, so at least they will be ok in time.
Looking at today’s cards, quite average racing. A typical Monday looking at all the tracks. A couple of horses running at Kempton of interest, I always look at horses with previous form at the Sunbury track, as going right handed and being able to handle the surface is always an advantage when having a bet.