Meetings abandoned today in the U.K. I understand one meeting in Ireland may go ahead at Limerick. No tip today, hopefully the bleak weather will not disrupt to much racing next week.
It was a non profitable week at Cheltenham, it’s always difficult. Good to see Native River win the Gold Cup, I had fancied Might Bite since his win on Boxing Day, but ended up backing Our Duke due to the very soft ground, it was probably a race that should of been watched without having a bet. I think if the first and second meet at Aintree on good ground, Might Bite could turn the tables, he was outstayed by Native River up the hill at Cheltenham.
I am currently in Newmarket visiting family and friends, just looked outside to see snow on the ground ! Hopefully racing will go ahead today at all the meetings.
Night Story was a good winner yesterday, he looks a nice horse. My other selection Our Duke pulled up in the Gold Cup, he was never travelling well, hopefully he will be ok. Today looks like any other Saturday, difficult to sort through the races and find a winner.
Todays Free tip is as follows:
Horse: Copain De Classe
Time: 2.05 Kempton
Current Odds: 5/4
A winner last time of a match race, where his sole rival departed very early on, he jumped well in the main, and looks as though he is still a work in progress. On his first run over fences he was a decent third to Benatar, who was third in a big race this week at Cheltenham, so solid form, regular jockey on top and he has won on a right handed track before, hopefully the ground does not get any softer, he will handle it, but he doesn’t really want it borderline heavy to be seen at his best, a few others also have better form on drier ground. Of rivals, Vocaliser has been in good form all winter, he will be dangerous again today, Kayf Blanco has also been running well , beaten only a neck last time at the track, he has not won a race though, for a long time.
Nice bit of profit yesterday with Supasundae backed each way at 9/1 finishing second, he was just outstayed by the winner, to be honest the slow gallop probably suited him and the winner, who is an ex useful performer of the flat.
Todays Free tips are as follows:
Horse: Night Story
Time: 2:20 Lingfield
Current Odds: 10/11
A good second on debut, I think this horse can win today, he will improve and should be OK over the extra 2f today. He has eased in price, so a tiny bit of value. He has a good jockey riding, who rides this track well. Of rivals, Dalileo has useful form from a two year old, he could be the one to beat. Yabaas has a 4lb penalty for being a winner, the horse that beat him, won again recently. I just think my selection will beat him in receipt of 4lb.
Horse: Our Duke
Time: 3:30 Cheltenham
Current odds: 9/2 EW
I am backing this horse each way. It is an open race, but this horse will act on the ground , has won over various trips (Up to 3m 5f) , he won a good prep race last time, beating a vey useful horse, who won a big race recently. Solid chance ew. Of rivals, Might Bite is not as good on slow soft ground, he is still a threat, but he could get taken on by Native River, which may set the race up for a horse ridden with patience, who stays well.
I think if Cheltenham has a bit of rain it could well make the ground a bit easier to get through, it is very sticky and tacky at the moment. It was a shame to see Ruby Walsh injured again yesterday, I read his leg has a small fracture again, he is expected to return in about 4-5 weeks, I think if I was him it would be time to say I’m moving on and doing something else, he is 38, which is a fair age for a jump jockey, he has had a few heavy falls over the years, but I guess it is his decision. I could name two or three jockeys in the top 20 riding jumping, who for me should of called time, you can see it in their riding,they sit back if the horse they are on looks like making a mistake, but it is a hard career to give up, its a game of highs and lows.
On to today, Im going to hopefully get one today at Cheltenham that has ew chance, in a very good race.
Time: 3.30 Cheltenham
Current Odds: 9/1 ew
A good winner last time over 2m, he has also good form over 3 miles as well. He has won at the track over 2m 5f and will handle the ground, his regular rider is on again, so lot of positives for today. He has good each way claims, its quite an open race as I see it. Of rivals, Sam Spinner is improving, he stays well and will like the soft ground, lots of others with chances L”ami Serge travels well and has a lot of talent, he is a big price and if in the mood has a good chance.
Not the best of starts to Cheltenham, Getabird ran with the choke out, too keen and was taken on down the back straight by First Flow, who’s rider had a rush of blood to the head, they got racing way too early and both horses hit a brick wall, I did think the ride of Noel Fehily on the winner was top class, the second Kalashnikov did really well to be second, as his jockey sent him for the winning post a long way from home.
Today looks as tricky as ever, no real value on Samcro in the first race at 8/11, although he has looked very good, I am not totally sure about the 2m 5f being ideal, especially as he was impressive when winning over 2 miles last time. But he has looked like a bit of a machine so far.
Todays Free tip is as follows:
Horse: Duc Des Genievres
Time: 1:30 Cheltenham
Current Odds : 16/1 ew
I have backed this horse each way, he has ran well behind Samcro and Next Destination in Ireland, he is improving and with the favourite at 8/11 , I would rather look to something at decent odds. He should act ok on the ground, and usually travels well, which is important in grade 1 races. Of rivals, Samcro has looked special, on form he is the one they all have to beat, it is 5f more today than when my selection was second to Samcro, hopefully he can get much closer to him today. Next Destination is another with solid form, he is dangerous, and is the choice of stable jockey Ruby Walsh, he has opted for him over Duc Des Genievres, but hopefully he has got it wrong !
With a dry morning the ground at Cheltenham will still be a severe test of stamina, the races at the festival does favour a horse that travels well, horses that race lazily or out of their comfort zone can make mistakes, and if they do in the top races they struggle to make the lost ground up.
I put Solid Man on last night as a tip at Newcastle this evening 6.45, I do think he will take a bit of beating. One horse at Cheltenham I am backing.
Current Odds: 15/8
Time: 1.30 Cheltenham
He is relatively short in price, but he has been impressive in his starts this winter. He is usually ridden positively, travels well and jumps very quick and well. He will need a bit of luck in a large field, but i think he will be right up with the leaders, keeping out of trouble. A strong stayer he can keep galloping in slow ground, it will be a grind, but I think this horse is ready for the challenge. Of rivals, Kalashnikov is honest and has solid form, he tends to hit a flat spot in his races, but does usually keep going, he will need to travel better than he did at Newbury when he won recently, or he may get shuffled back and find it difficult. First Flow is one that I think is a bit of value each way, he likes the ground and is improving with each race. Summerville Boy is another who could well be in the mix, he beat Kalashnikov when they met at Sandown in the Tolworth hurdle.
I am putting a tip on tonight for tomorrow’s racing, I will do an update tomorrow morning after 10.30am, a couple of horses running at Cheltenham of interest, it is a big concern though how soft the ground is likely to be.
Tuesdays Free tip is as follows:
Horse: Solid Man
Time: 7.45 Newcastle
Current Odds: Evens
I backed this horse last time out, he ran green that day and when switched wide in the Lingfield straight he finished the race off very well to be third. He is 1lb better off with Odds On Oli, who was second in that race. He will be sharper tomorrow, should improve and be much more at home over the straight mile of Newcastle. Although he is a bit short in price, he can make amends and win this handicap. Of rivals, Odds On Oli is his main threat I think, he has been running well and can be placed again, Plansina beat Odds On Oli over course and distance, when she won here in January, she is actually a pound better off tomorrow, her last run was poor, but it was on the fibresand at Southwell, she may well out run her odds. Bad Dog is another winner at the track, he wears blinkers and could be dangerous if they have a positive effect on him.
My selection at Plumpton today Dell Ora has been withdrawn, I was going to put another horse on here at Taunton, it has also been taken out of its intended race, lot of rain around. Tomorrow is the start of the Cheltenham Festival, slow ground is forecast , so no tip today. More tomorrow, it is one of the hardest weeks this week, finding winners, and with very soft ground it will be tougher !
Nice winner yesterday, First Drift won well at Market Rasen, he returned at 6/4.
Todays Free tip is as follows:
Horse: Della Oro
Time: 2.20 Plumpton
Current Odds: 11/8
This horse has been running well in better races. He will act ok on the ground, and with a 7lb claim off his back he can win this hurdle race. Of rivals, Larry is his stablemate, he looks the main danger and has been running well of late, Seaston Spirit was a bit below par last time, he finished very tired and has to improve to beat the Gary Moore trained horses.
Some very testing ground at Sandown yesterday, the race I backed Whatswrongwithyou in, who ran well to be third, it finished with a very close finish between the first and second, with Mr Antolini, the winner causing interference to the second Call Me Lord, he bumped the second horse twice on the run to the line, with only a neck separating the two at the post. Mr Antolini’s jockey had his whip in the wrong hand, allowing his horse to impede the second, a reversal of the front two should of happened, how the winner was allowed to keep the race was a complete mystery !
Todays free tip is as follows:
Horse: First Drift
Time: 2.00 Market Rasen
Current Odds: 15/8
A winner last time at Doncaster, where he rallied to win. I think he could just shade it here with his riders 5lb claim off his back, he will act on the ground, although both him and the favourite would prefer drier conditions. His jockey knows him well and in a race that should concern the front two in the betting , I think he can get the better of Ballyvic Boru. Others to consider are Sizing Cosmino who has shown ability, he will win races, but may be more of a horse for handicaps in the future.