I think if Cheltenham has a bit of rain it could well make the ground a bit easier to get through, it is very sticky and tacky at the moment. It was a shame to see Ruby Walsh injured again yesterday, I read his leg has a small fracture again, he is expected to return in about 4-5 weeks, I think if I was him it would be time to say I’m moving on and doing something else, he is 38, which is a fair age for a jump jockey, he has had a few heavy falls over the years, but I guess it is his decision.  I could name two or three jockeys in the   top 20 riding jumping,  who for me should of called time, you can see it in their riding,they sit back if the horse they are on looks like making a mistake, but it is a hard career to give up, its a game of highs and lows.

On to today, Im going to hopefully get one today at Cheltenham that has ew chance, in a very good race.

Horse: Supasundae

Time: 3.30 Cheltenham

Current Odds: 9/1 ew

A good winner last time over 2m, he has also good form over 3 miles as well.  He has won at the track over 2m 5f and will handle the ground, his regular rider is on again, so lot of positives for today.  He has good each way claims, its quite an open race as I see it.  Of rivals, Sam Spinner is improving, he stays well and will like the soft ground, lots of others with chances L”ami Serge travels well and has a lot of talent, he is a big price and if in the mood has a good chance.

Not the best of starts to Cheltenham, Getabird ran with the choke out, too keen and was taken on down the back straight by First Flow, who’s rider had a rush of blood to the head, they got racing way too early and both horses hit a brick wall, I did think the ride of Noel Fehily on the winner was top class, the second Kalashnikov did really well to be second, as his jockey sent him for the winning post a long way from home.

Today looks as tricky as ever, no real value on Samcro in the first race at 8/11, although he has looked very good, I am not totally sure about the 2m 5f being ideal, especially as he was impressive when winning over 2 miles last time. But he has looked like a bit of a machine so far.

Todays Free tip is as follows:

Horse: Duc Des Genievres

Time: 1:30 Cheltenham

Current Odds : 16/1 ew

I have backed this horse each way, he has ran well behind Samcro and Next Destination in Ireland, he is improving and with the favourite at 8/11 , I would rather look to something at decent odds.  He should act ok on the ground, and usually travels well, which is important in grade 1 races.  Of rivals, Samcro has looked special, on form he is the one they all have to beat, it is 5f more today than when my selection was second to Samcro, hopefully he can get much closer to him today.  Next Destination is another with solid form, he is dangerous, and is the choice of stable jockey Ruby Walsh, he has opted for him over Duc Des Genievres, but hopefully he has got it wrong !

With a dry morning the ground at Cheltenham will still be a severe test of stamina, the races at the festival does favour a horse that travels well, horses that race lazily or out of their comfort zone can make mistakes, and if they do in the top races they struggle to make the lost ground up.

I put Solid Man on last night as a tip at Newcastle this evening 6.45, I do think he will take a bit of beating. One horse at Cheltenham I am backing.

Horse: Getabird

Current Odds: 15/8

Time: 1.30 Cheltenham

He is relatively short in price, but he has been impressive in his starts this winter.  He is usually ridden positively, travels well and jumps very quick and well.  He will need a bit of luck in a large field, but i think he will be right up with the leaders, keeping out of trouble.  A strong stayer he can keep galloping in slow ground, it will be a grind, but I think this horse is ready for the challenge.  Of rivals, Kalashnikov is honest and has solid form, he tends to hit a flat spot in his races, but does usually keep going, he will need to travel better than he did at Newbury when he won recently, or he may get shuffled back and find it difficult.  First Flow is one that I think is a bit of value each way, he likes the ground and is improving with each race.  Summerville Boy is another who could well be in the mix, he beat Kalashnikov when they met at Sandown in the Tolworth hurdle.

I am putting a tip on tonight for tomorrow’s racing, I will do an update tomorrow morning after 10.30am, a couple of horses running at Cheltenham of interest, it is a big concern though how soft the ground is likely to be.

Tuesdays Free tip is as follows:

Horse: Solid Man

Time: 7.45 Newcastle

Current Odds: Evens

I backed this horse last time out, he ran green that day and when switched wide in the Lingfield straight he finished the race off very well to be third.  He is 1lb better off with Odds On Oli, who was second in that race.  He will be sharper tomorrow, should improve and be much more at home over the straight mile of Newcastle. Although he is a bit short in price, he can make amends and win this handicap. Of rivals, Odds On Oli is his main threat I think, he has been running well and can be placed again, Plansina beat Odds On Oli over course and distance, when she won here in January, she is actually a pound better off tomorrow, her last run was poor, but it was on the fibresand at Southwell, she may well out run her odds. Bad Dog is another winner at the track, he wears blinkers and could be dangerous if they have a positive effect on him.

Update: 11.30am

My selection at Plumpton today Dell Ora has been withdrawn, I was going to put another horse on here at Taunton, it has also been taken out of its intended race, lot of rain around. Tomorrow is the start of the Cheltenham Festival, slow ground is forecast , so no tip today.  More tomorrow, it is one of the hardest weeks this week, finding winners, and with very soft ground it will be tougher !

Nice winner yesterday, First Drift won well at Market Rasen, he returned at 6/4.

Todays Free tip is as follows:

Horse: Della Oro

Time: 2.20 Plumpton

Current Odds: 11/8

This horse has been running well in better races.  He will act ok on the ground, and with a 7lb claim off his back he can win this hurdle race.  Of rivals, Larry is his stablemate, he looks the main danger and has been running well of late, Seaston Spirit was a bit below par last time, he finished very tired and has to improve to beat the Gary Moore trained horses.

Some very testing ground at Sandown yesterday, the race I backed Whatswrongwithyou in, who ran well to be third, it finished with a very close finish between the first and second, with Mr Antolini, the winner causing interference to the second Call Me Lord, he bumped the second horse twice on the run to the line, with only a neck separating the two at the post. Mr Antolini’s  jockey had his whip in the wrong hand, allowing his horse to impede the second, a reversal of the front two should of happened, how the winner was allowed to keep the race was a complete mystery !

Todays free tip is as follows:

Horse: First Drift

Time: 2.00 Market Rasen

Current Odds: 15/8

A winner last time at Doncaster, where he rallied to win.  I think he could just shade it here with his riders 5lb claim off his back, he will act on the ground, although both him and the favourite would prefer drier conditions.  His jockey knows him well and in a race that should concern the front two in the betting , I think he can get the better of Ballyvic Boru.  Others to consider are Sizing Cosmino who has shown ability, he will win races, but may be more of a horse for handicaps in the future.

Update:

No other bet at the moment, Whatswrongwithyou ran well , not good enough, he pulled hard and paid the price on very testing ground.

I am putting my tip for tomorrow on this evening. Bit of a busy schedule tomorrow.  I will also do an update after 3pm, with hopefully a horse in a later race.

Saturday’s free tip is as follows:

Horse: Whatswrongwithyou

Time: 2.25 Sandown

Current Odds: 7/2

In a very competitive handicap, I am not normally keen on backing the favourite,  but this horse is ahead of his handicap mark as I see it.  He has also ran well at Sandown before, which is a plus.  He acts on the ground and is improving fast, jockey Nico De Boinville knows him well, and with hopefully a race that will be ran at a good pace, his jockey can get a bit of cover and finish his race off well to win.  Of rivals, lots of horses with chances, Silver Streak is a decent price and could well be competitive, Call Me Lord is a course winner, he has a big weight, but is a danger.

Nice winner yesterday , Night Castle won well at Newcastle evening meeting, backed into even money from around 6/4 , he can win again if finding a similar race.

Todays free tip is as follows:

Horse: Imada

Time: 3.25 Ayr

Current Odds: 9/4

This horse ran quite well on his comeback run 54 days ago, he has been given time to recover,  if he produces his form of old he is more than good enough to win this race.  He has always been well thought of by connections, not many 8 year olds have only ran 6 times, he is fragile, but has a fair amount of talent.  He should be ok on the ground and can get back to winning form today.  Of rivals, Charmont is honest and has decent form of late, he is  slightly worse off at the weights with Our Lucas on previous form, but won well when he beat Our Lucas and should confirm form again.