Pleased to get a nice WINNER yesterday for my subscribers.  Ghaiyyath was advised at 15/8 on Friday evening, was heavily backed into around 11/10, before running out a ready winner at Longchamp in a Group 3 event over 10f .  He is a horse with a big future, if he stays sound.  as this was his first run for a year.

Lots of rain around so a cautious day if having a bet ! If Plumpton gets a lot of rain, the ground can be really testing, clay soil gets very tacky when soft, and is really very hard work.

It was a good performance yesterday by Young Rascal at Newbury, he managed to beat Mirage Dancer by a nose in the Group 3 11f Dubai Duty Free Legacy Cup Stakes.  It was a tight finish. with the winner probably coping with the soft ground better than the runner up, plus the second horse had a 3lb penalty for a Group 3 win at Goodwood, both are good horses.

More Later.

Fair amount of rainfall forecast.  At Ayr it will be a real slog, heavy ground, plus it is the third day of racing.  The main race at the Scottish venue is the William Hill Ayr Gold Cup at 3:50. A usual open handicap, draw and being ok on the ground are essential, looking at the 25 that line up, it looks difficult.  Interest betting only,  Muntadab has form on all types of ground, is drawn in the middle, so has options. He would be my choice for a small EW bet at 12/1 (5places, bet365).

At Newbury where rain is forecast,  Mirage Dancer 2:20 is a very good improving horse,  his best form though has been on good or faster ground, so at 2/1 he will need to be as good on likely good to soft ground today, as this is a competitive race.  A few improving 3 year olds in Young Rascal and Extra Elusive, plus last years winner Desert Encounter, he will handle the ground ok. I hope Mirage Dancer can defy his penalty and win.

Late post today.  I have not had a bet today,  some poor ground at Ayr , tough for horses to handle conditions.  One stable in fine form is the Keith Dalgliesh yard, he has his horses in great shape.

Looking at the later races tonight at the. evening cards, Seek The Moon in the 7:50 could run well at decent odds.  I will give an each way bet tomorrow,  a rainy forecast at Newbury, the ground today was on the easy side of good,  hopefully not too much will arrive.  A couple of horses I follow are entered, but they don’t really want rain, so a waiting game !

It is the start of the big meeting at Ayr today.  As normal for the western meeting, the ground is going to be soft.  Stamina on testing ground is a must, plus the winds may well make it even harder for horse and rider to win.  The main race today is the William Hill Doonside Cup Stakes, a listed race for 3 year olds and upwards, it looks competitive, if Aspetar handles the ground he could well run well at decent odds, he is an unknown on Soft/heavy ground, but I would think connections must assume he will be ok, or he would not be running.

I see that Kew Gardens is a possible runner in a few weeks in the Prix De l’Arc De Triomphe at Longchamp.  He won a decent St Leger recently, but to win an Arc will be much tougher, he could run well, but I don’t think he is quite up to winning it.

I think if the ground is soft Cracksman has a good chance, if his mind is on the job ! It is likely that Frankie Dettori will ride Enable, so I am not sure who will get the leg up on Cracksman, if he runs.

Late blog post today.  Racing currently at Kelso with a twilight meeting.  Strong winds have caused reduced obstacles to jump, for safety reasons.  Looking at the last couple of races Alfie’s Choice has a good chance in the 6:15 .

More later.

Nice to get another WINNER today for my subscribers.  Vivionn 2:00 Lingfield was advised this morning at 7/4 , she won by a length under Ryan Moore.  Another good day of profit, hopefully the second half of the month will be as good.

Just saw a 1-4 shot get turned over by a 20/1 shot at Redcar, just shows that there is never such a thing as a certainty!

At Kempton tonight a few interesting Novice races,  worth watching at this time of year closely, as some of the bigger yards give horses a run with the future in mind, a lot of horses do not have a hard time, especially if making their debut.

The 7:00 1 mile handicap looks tricky, Ledham has a good profile and is lightly raced.  He could well take a bit of beating, as he has won on an all weather surface before, and ran well on his last start.

Reflecting on the weekend racing results.  It was sad to see two very good horses run well and pick up injuries that have been career ending, regards being able to race again.  Alpha Centauri picked up an injury with one her front joints (ankle) and Saxon Warrior was found to have a tendon injury.  Both are very valuable for stud, so at least they will be ok in time.

Looking at today’s cards,  quite average racing.  A typical Monday looking at all the tracks.  A couple of horses running at Kempton of interest, I always look at horses with previous form at the Sunbury track, as going right handed and being able to handle the surface is always an advantage when having a bet.

More later.

Pleased to get 2 WINNERS yesterday for my subscribers.  Tabarrak 3:05 Lingfield advised at 5/4 and Madhmoon 4:25 Leopardstown advised at 11/8 both won well.  The latter is a really bright prospect for the future, he could well go for a Group 1 next. Over 5 points(£500) in PROFIT for September so far, not a bad return for £50 for a monthly subscription!

Loxley yesterday, who I thought would be in the mix at Doncaster in the St Leger, was too keen in the early stages of the contest, he weakened in the latter stages.  If you don’t relax , you don’t get home, especially at the top level.

Some really good racing today in France and in Ireland.  The National Stakes Group 1 at the Curragh 4:15 looks to be between Anthony Van Dyck and Quroto.  Both look improving horses, it looks a spin of a coin.  Both are joint favourites in the betting. The Lonchamp card is the trial races for the Arc meeting in 3 weeks, they  always have a guide for the big October weekend, you usually get a few horses trying to win, but running with the future in mind.

More later.

The first race at Doncaster looks like a stick a pin in it job, so I am looking at the 2:05 Chester for another each way bet today.  Always Resolute has been running into form, has won at the unique track previously, and acts on all types of ground, at 6/1 he is value each way.

I still like Loxley in the big Group 1 at Doncaster, if he gets the trip he can be right in the mix.  Great races in Ireland today, some real nice races.  Good luck with your selections !

Hopefully followers may have had a bit of Soldiers Call each way yesterday,  he was backed from 6/1- 4/1.  He handled the good to soft ground well, a speedy horse who knows how to win.

Today is the William Hill St Leger at Doncaster 3:35.  Lah Ti Dar is one of two fillies taking on the colts.  She is unbeaten in three starts, her odds of 7/4 are a bit narrow, she probably deserves to head the market but I would look elswhere for something with a bit of value.  Loxley has done little wrong, his issue is the 14f trip.  His only defeat this year was when second over 13f at Newmarket.  I thought he was given a bad ride that day,  you cannot give Group horses 10 or more lengths during the early part of a race,  that is what William Buick did that day, the winner Wells Farh Go poached a soft lead and was never going to get caught.  I think Loxley, who won a Group 2 recently( over 12f) in France,  currently priced at 8/1, each way is a bit of value.

I will do an updated message later,  lots of good races today.