Soft/heavy ground at Fontwell today, the only turf meeting to survive.  I was just talking to my father in law, he lives in Jedburgh right on the border,  in Scotland, he tells me its -6, so here in Guernsey at 10 I feel quite a bit warmer.  I see Hereford has been called off.

Todays Free tip is as follows:

Horse: Puppet Warrior

Time: 3.45 Fontwell

Current Odds: 6/4

This horse was a bit out of his depth last time at Ascot.  In a much easier grade today, he should take all the beating, he handles soft ground and has the experience of having a couple of runs over hurdles, he was second on his first run over hurdles at Plumpton, if he reproduces that run he will be tough to beat, some good bumper form last season as well, will be helpful.  I do like the jockey as well, he is under rated.  Of rivals, Seaston Spirit has ran well in bumper races, he is though unproven on a soft surface, he will probably handle it, and is sure to be well schooled on his first run over hurdles in public, he is a danger.  Mellow Ben has not really set the world alight on his runs in bumper races, he did run ok over hurdles last time, and  he does come from a good yard,  and may well show more today.

Good Boy Bobby winning yesterday was another day of profit, hoping to keep up the decent run today.

Todays Free Tip is as follows:

Horse: Harefield

Time: 1.35 Plumpton

Current Odds: 4/5

With heavy ground at Plumpton today, it will be hard work.  My selection has won on soft ground and should be ok on the ground, he looked to be an improving type when winning last time, the step up to 2m 4f should be no problem, as Plumpton is a sharp track and a bit easier to get the trip.  With his stable just returning to some form, he can win this today.

Of rivals, Game On looks the obvious main threat, he has shown some fair form and is dangerous.  The rest are pretty much ordinary, Larry has shown ok form and could well run well at decent odds.

 

 

Another good winner today , Good Boy Bobby won easily 3.55 Chepstow.  I am not backing this evening, end the day on a winner.

Today the ground will be very soft at most of the tracks.  Proven form on a soft surface is a must.

Todays free tip is as follows:

Horse: Good Boy Bobby

Time: 3.55 Chepstow

Current Odds: 6/4

It is tough to win a bumper with a penalty, you need to be above average.  Good Boy Bobby travelled really well when a course winner of a bumper last year, he is fitted with a hood today, possibly to help him relax, as he was a bit keen in the first half of the race when he won.  His jockey won on him last time so knows the horse.  I think the race he won was above average, and he can win again today. Of rivals, Gwalia ran well on debut when second at Taunton, he has to prove he handles the ground today. Mount Rudhmoore is a winner of a point to point on soft ground, he could well be the main threat.

I will update around 1pm, as a horse I like runs at Sundown, I am just awaiting a bit more on the ground conditions.

Update: 1.10pm

Nothing at Sundown, keep an eye out if you follow as I could well put a fresh blog on later after 4pm, with something for tonight.

 

Nice two winners yesterday, Winds Of Fire and Breathless Times both won easily, as short priced favourites are always supposed to win.

With the weather being the cause of Wetherby being called off today, only racing goes ahead on the all weather at Southwell, Kempton and Dundalk in Ireland.  Having looked at the cards, I am not really struck on anything that looks worth a bet, so no tip today.

I will hopefully have something good tomorrow.

A good winner yesterday with Ellen’s Way winning at Ludlow, advised at 5/2 in the morning, she was heavily backed into even money, winning by a neck.

Todays free tips are as follows:

Horse: Winds Of Fire

Time: 2.40 Newcastle

Current Odds: 4/5

Although a short priced favourite, this horse only has 3 rivals and can win this on what he has shown so far.  He was running on well last time over 1 mile, and has every chance of staying the extra 4f today.  Of his rivals, Dichato takes a big step up in trip, I don’t think he will stay, he has fair form last year, but that was over 6f and 7f.  The other two will have to improve on what they have shown so far, Stirling Value could well be the main one to beat, as he has a staying pedigree, and did not run too bad on debut.

 

Horse: Breathless Times

Time: 3.30 Wolverhampton

Current Odds: 10/11

A late closer on debut when second at Kempton, my selection is well drawn and ridden hopefully a shade closer today he can win this maiden. He has a decent claimer on top, who takes off 3lb.  Of his rivals Global Pass is the main threat I think, he ran well on debut and will improve, he wears a hood so he is possibly a bit keen to get on with things, Kingofmerrows is an older horse that has had a lot of tries to break his maiden, he has experience and a chance.

 

 

 

Update:

The Great Wall 2:40 Southwell looks a penalty kick to me he is around evens, he looked a horse that really liked the fibresand last time when he won, he will be hard to beat today.

A nice winner yesterday with First Contact obliging at Newcastle, he was backed into 4/5 and won well.

Today I believe racing is going ahead after the overnight high winds.

Todays Free tip is as follows:

Horse: Ellen’s Way

Time: 2:50 Ludlow

Current Odds: 5/2

After her recent win at Fontwell on Boxing Day, assuming that this race has not come  too soon, my selection can follow up over the extra 3 furlongs today.  She actually won comfortably last time and was not stopping that day over 2m 5f, so she has every chance of staying the trip today.  She acts on soft ground, and her jockey won on her recently.

Of her rivals, Daisy De Sivola races over 3 miles also for the first time today, she should stay, and has a fair chance, she has been backed from 10s down to 4/1 overnight, I think she has a bit to find to trouble my selection.  Saint Ladylime is prone to jumping errors over hurdles and fences, she has the ability, and if she puts in a clear round of jumping, she is dangerous.

 

 

 

 

 

It was good to start the 2018 with a winner yesterday.  Yaltari winning at Exeter, he returned at 13/8 which was good.  Possibly a shade lucky as the main danger had got upsides him when it fell at the second last hurdle, but jumping is the name of the game !

I was a bit unlucky later as I did have a double as well as single bet on  Yaltari with the short priced favourite which rider Adam Wedge missed the third fence from home out when clear in the Novice Chase.  Not sure what he was thinking !

Todays Free tips are as follows:

Horse: Rivabodiva

Time: 1.00 Ayr

Current Odds: 10/1 Ew

It will be soft ground at Ayr today, Rivabodiva has won at the track on the soft, and her claiming rider has won on her before.  He claims 10lb off her back as he is riding for his boss today, so with a handy weight of 10st 5lb she can be a good each way bet in a fairly open race.  Of her rivals, the top weight Niceandeasy has won three races from three starts,he steps up to 3 miles today and could be quite well in off 117, but 12 stone on heavy ground is never easy, so I’m hoping my selection can win off her good racing weight.  Of  other rivals, Too Many Chiefs is a course and distance winner, and is respected with her rider also claiming a handy 5lb allowance.

 

Horse: First Order

Time: 5.40 Newcastle

Current Odds: 5/4

With no real form to go on as this horse is unraced.  I just think he can win this race.  He was expensive as a foal (300,000) and has been given time, he has been backed and the stables two year olds have had a lot of winners on debut during 2017.  Of rivals, Daltrey has not looked anything special in his two starts, Naval Officer could run well at decent odds, as he ran well last time when 4th, and was running on over 6f, todays 7f will be suitable.

With a fair amount of rain falling last night, most of the racing today will be on soft ground.  So look for horses with form on that sort of going, unless fancying having a bet on the all weather surface at Southwell.

Hopefully I can get a good start to the New year and find a few winners, still showing a good profit of around £4000, if betting to a £100 pound stake. That is  calculated from when I started the blog in May 2017.

Todays free tip is as follows:

Horse: Yaltari

Time: 1:15 Exeter

Current Odds: 6/4

A good winner last time (raised 13lb) for that win.  He acts on soft ground and stays well, this horse looks to be a type that will keep improving this winter.   With his trainer known for having a good season when the ground gets wet, her horses seem to show their best on the soft, her horses are starting to hit form now.  My selection has to take a step forward today, as it is a stronger race than his last, but he is a big horse and very lightly raced, hopefully he can win again.  Of rivals Billy Hicks looked to be a decent prospect last season, he may benefit for today’s run, Here’s Herbie may be the main threat, he was second last year in this race, so acts on the track and underfoot conditions should be OK.

I will update later around 1:45-2pm with something.

Update:

I am not having another bet, pleased to see Yaltari win.  Good start to 2018!