A late post today.  I have been doing a bit of travelling.  Looking at the results from Newmarket, Skardu won the 3.35 Craven Stakes, he was having only his second race of his life, so although he only won by a neck, a fair amount of improvement can be expected.  The dissapointing effort from Royal Marine, looks like he is not quite right yet, he was below par on his run on dirt at Meydan, so he is probably a horse to avoid currently !  It remains to be seen if he heads for the 2000 Guineas, which is looking very open, Too Darn Hot has an injury, and it is not clear if he will run, Ten Sovereigns, who is second favourite, looked to me last year that he is blessed with a lot of speed, so I’m not convinced he will be as good over 8f.  Uae Jewel was an impressive winner of the 1 Mile Wood Ditton Stakes at Newmarket, he looked useful and where he goes next, I am not sure yet, but he should be followed.  I have had a quiet week, no real bets of substance, I was interested in a horse today at Beverley, but he was withdrawn. Looking at the races this evening at Southwell, the 8.00 looks a competitive event for the track, two previous winners at the track head the betting.  Sense Of Belonging, who is trying the surface for the first time, could well be capable of upsetting the front two in the betting, useful form at two, given a break and trying a new surface might well give him a solid chance. You never fully know how they will handle Southwell, all I will say is if they handle ground on turf on the soft side, they will handle conditions better than something that wants fast ground grass conditions.

A couple of horses are entered to run over the next few days that I follow, hopefully the ground stays ok.

A  couple of decent races  today at Newmarket’s first meeting of 2019.  The 3.35 is a Group 3 event for three year old fillies over 7f.  A few of these will be hoping of winning or running very well, and then maybe running in one of the classics, either back at the track for the 1,000 Guineas in the first week of May, or either France or Ireland for the equivalent Guineas fillies races.  Todays race looks very open to me, Main Edition, Angels Hideaway and Mot Juste all have good form from last year, it all depends on how forward they are, I am not getting involved in the race, as I don’t know which way it will go.   The main three year olds colt event is at 3.00, a listed race over 9f, this is seen as more of a Derby trial.  Kick On and Western Australia are the front two in the betting, they met in a group 1 last year, that was over a mile on easier ground, The latter was a few lengths ahead in third that day, with Kick On back in 6th.  Western Australia has had a run this year, so may have the fitness edge, I think it is another race to watch closely, as Kadar is another potentially useful horse.  He won his maiden last year, and could be anything.

I looked at Exeter, and nothing really appealed as worth backing, Wolverhampton this evening looks pretty difficult as well, so not much of great interest today worth an investment, if I do back anything it will be small stakes.

Quite a decent card at Windsor today.  The ground is ok, I did think Deal A Dollar 4.00 could win under Ryan Moore, he has had one run when second, he has drifted in the betting from odds on to around 11/8.  Lots of support for Telecaster has caused the drift, but it’s not a one horse race, Ginistrelli won at Newmarket last year, he has a penalty, so will be dangerous as well, it is always difficult in the first few weeks of the flat, especially when it is the first run of the year as a three year old, some horses improve so much during the winter and cautious betting is required, unless you have heard they have been working like a machine !

It was good to see Persian King win easily yesterday, he was around 14/1 when I advised a small each way on him for the 2000 Guineas, with a firm that was NRNB.  If he goes to Newmarket he has a decent chance, I would not rule out my other tip Madhmoon either, hopefully both will line up.

Good racing at most tracks today.  Trial races at Newbury for potential classic contenders , the ground is on the soft side, it will likely be ok for Dancing Vega who runs in the 2.10, this 7f fillies Group 3 looks very open, Dancing Vega was really impressive when she won last year at Doncaster, her stable has not ran many of late, but it is the same for many of the trainers.  I think it is a trial to watch, as is the colts race at 2.40, which looks open as well, this was the planned trial for Too Darn Hot, who is current favourite for the 2000 Guineas in May, unfortunately he has met with a setback. The 1.40 at The track is a good race for the older horses over 12f.  I like two in this, Young Rascal is a really useful horse, he will have to be fit as Marmello and Defoe are very good horses as well, I just prefer Young Rascal as he acts well at the track, he has a few pounds to find with Defoe and Marmello, so small bets only. At Ayr, I like Secret Investor in the 3.00, he handles the faster ground, I just hope him and Monbeg Legend don’t set the race up for Ballywood, who tries the longer trip today and likes to come from off a good pace. It’s a day for small bets for me, the bookies could have a field day !

Today has some really good racing at Newbury on the level.  The most interesting race is the 4.10 10f conditions Stakes, some really strong market support overnight for Space Blues, at his current price of 11/10, I will leave him alone, I am not saying he will not win, but Turgenev is 4/1 with a few firms, I would rather back him each way, or without the favourite.  He has the strongest form of the field, his last run was in a Group 1, so this is a bit of a drop in class.

At Ayr over jumps, Galvin is favourite for the 1.50- he is the likely winner as I see it, a lot of these are running off below par effort, I just thought he had the best form, and ran well at Cheltenham.

More later.

A good winner yesterday for my subscribers, Iley Boy 6.45 Kempton was a big drifter in the betting from 13/8 -11/4, but it did not stop him battling on well under useful apprentice Cieran Fallon.  It looks as though Fallon has inherited his parents riding talent, hopefully he has no real weight issues, and can keep improving.

Today has Huntingdon, Wetherby and Limerick in Ireland holding jump racing and Chelmsford City and Newcastle on the level.  The ground is drying out, Huntingdon ground is good,  and racing looks competitive, I am interested in a few at the track, so will watch the first race, as I want to see how fast or slow the going looks, at Wetherby in the first race at 1.50, I thought Fransham had the best form, although he did not find much for pressure last time, Swordbill could be his biggest rival, if he jumps better than he has in his two tries over obstacles.  Conchita 1.40 Huntingdon tries hurdles today for the first time, she is a winner of a bumper, and has a good chance of getting off the mark in this race.

Chelmsford has some potentially nice horses running at the track,  Derevo 2.30 has been heavily backed in the morning, he showed a lot of promise on his only run last year, it looks a good race for him to start 2019.  He may well be a typical Sir Michael Stoute type, who will improve lots with experience.

I have read about Brendan Powell retiring from the training ranks.  He has had a few lean years winners wise over the last 5 years, it is really hard to keep going when you have under 20 horses, hopefully he will continue in some capacity within racing, as his experience as a former jockey and trainer can be helpful for young people who are considering racing as a career path.

The ground at Nottingham today looks to be on the fast side of good, the last winner Garrus, in the 2.30 just broke the 5f course record.  It looks really nice conditions for jumping at Warwick as well, the sun is shining.  Later in the card at Warwick Djin Conti has top weight, I don’t think he will mind drying ground, and may well be good enough in the 3.45.  At Lingfield on the all weather Velvet Moon has a favourites chance at 4.30, she likes to get on with things, and the drop back to 6f was right up her street last time.  With an evening all weather card on the level, a few tricky races at the Sunbury track, a couple of horses I follow are lining up, I will watch the betting and have a look at them before possibly having a bet, fitness and how they are handling the preliminaries is always key.  I saw a race last night at Gowran Park, one horse that was attracting some market support, looked very big (belly) walking round the paddock, it ran ok but was clearly in need of the run.  It’s important to try and have a look at them, cantering to post, and how they handle the preliminaries, I have “cashed out” many times, when things don’t look right.

More later.

Update: 7pm

I like Twilight Payment in the last race at Gowran at 7.40, he has a bit of quality.  The stable are in good form of late,  It is a race which also has Hasanabad in it, who is unexposed.  He could be a potentially nice horse, one run in a good maiden last year when he was third.  Interesting race.

More tomorrow.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

A good winner yesterday for my subscribers, Days Of Glory 3.20 Windsor was my only advised bet when 2/1 in the morning, he was well supported into 13/8.  It was good to see jockey Rossa Ryan riding, he is a good young jockey, this will be his first year without his claim, so very crucial he gets plenty of chances for Richard Hannon.

Today has jump racing at Southwell and Exeter, with Pontefract and Gowran Park in Ireland on the flat.

I have not had a bet yet, I thought it was pretty hard today.  Value in price has gone on a couple I was interested in, maybe they will drift late on so I will wait.   Hatcher 2.50 Southwell jumped well on his first run over fences, he has drifted out to 5/4, but I will probably watch the race.  The 3.00 Pontefract has only three lining up, I would not be surprised to see Rochester House turn over the odds on favourite, the ground looks good so perfect conditions.  Some interesting races at Gowran later, I may well update later as the first race is not until 4.05, the ground will probably ride on the slow side of good, I just want to watch a race, as I quite like one in one of the later races.

 

 

 

It was good to see Tiger Roll win a second Grand National yesterday.  The ground drying as I mentioned yesterday was key I thought, plus he was given a great ride by Davy Russell, he made it look pretty easy when his horse made a couple of errors, Tiger Roll was clever as he found a leg, when he pecked quite badly 4 out.  Hooefully he may be back again next year, but I am not sure he will try again.  Rain at Plumpton, not too much of interest at the track. In France at Longchamp, the 4.00 is a Group 2 race, Ghaiyyath  for Godolphin is short odds favourite, he is a classy horse, Soliel Molin is trained by Andre Fabre for the same connections, at 5/1 he has good form, he is a threat to the favourite.

More later.