16 September 2019

A late post today.  With only two races down at Kempton so far.  A few of interest in a couple of the later races.  The 7.00 is a really interesting race. With a couple of proven front runners in the race.  Hermosura won well last time, although it was possibly a weak race, the second got well beat today, but that was on turf.  Alma Linda  was the one I thought that had a strong chance, it really depends on how the race is run, she likes to bowl along, so I will probably have a bet “in play” if she does not get taken on too much.  Robert Lechelle is a bit of an unexposed type in it.  He looked good on the all weather, earlier in the year, and ran ok on his recent run, so may progress.  He is not over raced, so is one to watch.  In the final race, Brigand is coming off a break, and a win. He is still well handicapped on his older form, and could be one to side with in the 8.30.

More tomorrow.

15 September 2019

Hopefully followers took my advise and backed Logician yesterday in the William Hill St Leger.  He was an impressive winner, breaking the course record in the process! He could well be as effective over 12f next year, I am not sure if he will run again in 2019.  Possible excursion to America for one of the Breeders Cup races may be an option. Reflecting on the last weeks racing, some really nice prospects for next year.  Stradivarius was once again a clear winner, he is apparently staying in training, and will try and win another Ascot Gold Cup next season.  Molatham was a good winner, from highly promising Wichita on Friday, both horses are potentially Group race future winners, I would not write off Visinari yet, he was fourth in the same race.  A big weak colt, hopefully he will not run again this year.  I saw this horse when he won at Newmarket back in June, I just hope he has no lasting effects from a lot of racing for a very immature horse, who clearly needs to fill his frame !

Todays card’s at the Curragh see’s 4 Group 1 races.  Pinatubo 3.35 hopes to keep up his unbeaten record.  He has done everything right so far, in his likely hardest test, Armory could well give him something to think about.  He has improved with racing, and will not go down without a battle.  The 4.50 is a race for retired jockeys, all riding to raise money for Pat Smullen, who is raising money for a great cause.  Pat had to retire from riding this year, due to cancer, sadly he is not quite well enough to ride in this race, some fantastic riders from both codes line up, hopefully it will be a good race and all of the riders enjoy getting back on the racecourse.  At Longchamp it is Arc trials weekend, with only three weeks left until the big race.  Waldgeist is very short odds to win at 1.35, he is still a live each way price for the big race, at around 16/1, I have already backed him each way for the race.

14 September 2019

It was sad to see the Queen’s horse Invictus Spirit fatally injured yesterday, after winning the 4.05 Chester.  The race he won was set up for him by Mayne and Two Bids, who took each other on in the first 4f of the race, both horses early fractions covering the first 5 and a half furlongs in 1 minute. 03.89, which is far too quick.  Paul Hanagan who rode Two Bids, seemed adamant that he was going to make the running, and chased his horse up to try and get the lead in the early stages of the race, David Probert was trying to get his horse Mayne to relax, but had no hope when hassled by Hanagan, who was riding a very strange race.   Invictus Spirit, ridden patiently, picked off the tiring Mayne in the latter stages to score by about 2 Lengths.  Shortly after passing the line, he took a “bad step” and was fatally injured.

Today has some really good races.  The main race is at Doncaster.  The William Hill St Leger Stakes, a Group 1 for 3 year old colts and fillies. Proven stamina is required for this race, ran over 14f and 115 yards.  Unbeaten Logician has everything in his favour as I see it, he will cope ok with the quick ground, stays well, and has the right man on top in Frankie Dettori.  He is short priced favourite, probably because of the ground, which will ride on the fast side, If the ground was on the easy side, Sir Dragonet would be a real threat, and would be closer in price.   He is coming of a disappointing effort, although that was over 10f, which is on the sharp side,  but prior to that his form was really good.  He ran well in the Derby, having looked like winning, until just getting ran out of it in the last furlong, finishing a close fifth, on what was only his third run.  That is good form.  Both him and the favourite Logician did not race at two.  So are still relatively unexposed, and likely improvers, Donacha O’Brian, who rides Sir Dragonet was very bullish about his horses chance when interviewed yesterday. So it should be a good race.

More later.

 

 

13 September 2019

One race down at Chester, where the ground looks on slow side of good.  I thought Conundrum 3.00 had a decent chance, he drops back to 10f, having not quite getting home over 12f on his last two runs.  He has ran well at the track, which is always a plus having experienced the tight turns.  He likes to bowl along at the front end, and with only Torochina being the other confirmed front runner, who steps up 3f in trip, my selection way get his own way in front.  At Doncaster Saroog 2.40 looks to have found a decent opportunity, he is improving and comes here full of confidence, having won his last two. Sprinter,  A’Ali 3.45 looked very good over 5f, prior to his ok run over 6f.  The drop back in trip to 5f today should be ideal, his first try racing on a faster surface, he has raced with cut in the ground so far,  if he handles the fast ground ok, he is the one to beat.

It looks like being quick ground tomorrow for the final 3 year old ‘‘classic”,  ground that will very likely not be ideal for Sir Dragonet.

More tomorrow.

12 September 2019

He Only two races left at Chelmsford this evening.  The last race just ran at 7.20  was won by Royal Birth, who was given a soft lead over the 5f race.  His young rider Marco Ghiani managed to ride an astute race to win, as it was virtually impossible for his rivals to win, as they gifted the race to the apprentice rider.  It’s hard to win from behind off slow fractions, as the horses ridden prominently, especially the horse making the running have a massive advantage, as was the case here. It amazes me how some jockeys on horses that like to come from behind, ride the same race, no matter what the pace of the race is being ran at.  The favourite Harry’s Bar was given a mountain to climb by his jockey George Wood, it hasn’t been George’s night, as he didn’t shine on Silver Samurai 5.50, as I think he should of won as well.

A lot of analysis about the St Leger on the Racing channels today.  The final classic for three year olds on Saturday at Doncaster looks between Logician and Sir Dragonet.  The unbeaten Logician heads the betting, and deserves to be at the head of the market, he has improved with every run so far, and I think he will be hard to beat.  If I was looking for something to back each way, Technician At 12/1 would be my choice.

More tomorrow.

11 September 2019

Doncaster starts today at 1.50, with the opener for two year olds over 6f.  Lazuli has a good chance of getting another win in this 6f event.  I was going to oppose him with the withdrawn Lampang, but with him out, it should be pretty much straightforward.  The 3.00 sprint over the minimum trip, has only 7 runners, a Listed event that looks a good opportunity for Tis Marvellous.

The 3.35 is for former jockeys, flat and jump.  Some decent ex jockeys riding, with Kieran Fallon, Timmy Murphy and Noel Fehily probably being the most successful when race riding, Fallon is the only former Champion amongst them.  Victoria Smith rides Sands Chorus, formerly known as Vince Smith ! The first transgender to ride under rules I believe.  I know Victoria well, as we were both based in Newmarket when riding.  Good luck to him/her and the rest of them today, as I know the majority are riding for some sort of charity.  I may put an updated message on later today, with some information on a few at Kempton tonight.

10 September 2019

A late post today.  I did not get involved having a bet.  Just been looking at the Kelso racing, the 6.40 just won by Winding Roe under Brian Hughes, making all the running and seeing off his only danger Charming Dream, who was ridden by amateur rider Mr A Anderson.  After about 4 flights I could see the end result, Hughes was dictating matters in front, and the rider in second was trying to get his horse relaxed in behind.  With Charming Dream not wanting to switch off, his rider should of let his mount try and relax in front, but I guess his rider has had little experience, hopefully Rebecca Menzies will sit down and go through his ride, with him tomorrow, as he made a fair few errors.

Looking ahead to the rest of the week, Doncaster main meeting of the year starts tomorrow.  With the St Leger the main Group 1 race on Saturday.  Some nice horses on show this week, hopefully I can find a few winners.

9 September 2019

The big race in France yesterday ended with a photo finish, going the way of Circus Maximus.  My selection Romanised was a nose away in second.  But the biggest question was should Romanised of got the race, he was clearly impeded by the winner inside the last furlong, and with the winning margin being so close, I thought he was certain to get it.  Today has revealed that the connections of Romanised will lodge an appeal, so we shall see what happens.

Rain has fallen over many areas in the UK, watching Sky Sports racing just now, it looks as though Newton Abbot has missed it, and Brighton has missed it as well, although it is overcast and possible showers are forecast.  Perth is good to firm , Listowel is soft, and we have all weather racing at Wolverhampton tonight.  Finding something to back looks pretty tricky, I did think Sandy Steve 3.20 Brighton could defy short odds to win.  The 2.15 looks a good opportunity for Dontaskmeagain to win on debut, it doesn’t look a tough race.  Tony Carroll is the trainer to follow at the Sussex track, he has 8 runners, and could well saddle a winner or two.

8 September 2019

A good winner for my subscribers yesterday.  Dramatic Sands 3.50 Kempton was advised to back (without the favourite)  at 13/8, and was an outright winner by a neck, it was a good result.  Despite tending to hang left, he was put right by rider Hollie Doyle, she is the best female rider on the flat riding in the UK for me, and gets plenty of winners for the Archie Watson yard.

Today has some decent racing in France.  A group 1 at 2.50 Longchamp, well contested by horses from Ireland, England and France.  Romanised is the likely favourite to win.  He did little wrong when winning a Group 1 on his last run. He is the one to beat.  Line Of Duty was third to him that day, running on well, he can run well again, and could be even more effective when he steps up in trip.

At York 4.30 The Night Watch could give young leading apprentice Cieran Fallon another winner, I hope that he rides this horse well forward, as I am not sure being ridden from off the pace suits this horse.

More Later.

7 September 2019

Delighted to get a winner yesterday for my subscriber’s.  Kheros 5.40 Kempton, drifted in the betting market, from 11/8 in the morning, out to his staring price of 9/4.  The result never looked in doubt, making most of the running, he drew clear in the later stages of the race to win well, under his young apprentice rider.

This is a later post today.  With not long before the 3.55 Ascot, Baasem has a good chance of winning this, he has gone up a fair bit in the weights for a facile win last time.  But this well bred gelding could of been a bit of a slow burner, he has to improve to win, as this is a good race, Cirque Royal is another with a similar profile, and he could well be a smart horse.  He is coming from a long period away from the racecourse,I’m guessing he has had a slight setback,  and this is his first time on grass. On breeding he should have no issues with the switch to turf.

 

More later.