Reflecting on the return of the racing in France yesterday.  Two really hot favourites were beaten in Victor Ludorum and Sottsass.  The former raced wide, and was keen under Barzalona, who failed to get his horse relaxed.  I would think connections would of expected him to win well, prior to the race.  It was interesting to note that the winner dictated the pace of the race,and stole a bit of leeway- as the horses entered the last two furlongs. I thought  Barzalona should of gone against the pre-race tactics, on Victor Ludorum, which were to ride his mount from off the pace, sometimes when you are riding, you have to do that, simply ride the race to suit your horse, not the opposite. Basically for me it was a very average ride on a very useful horse !

Sottsass was another who was ridden from off the pace, the eventual winner Shaman,  who made all the running in this Group 3- over 10f,  dictated the fractions and stayed on strongly to win, Shaman was well ridden.  What surprised me,  was after seeing the previous race, why did Sottsass’s rider not sit a lot closer to his main threat Shaman, who had the run of the race at the front end.  Sottsass was given a hard task to win from his rider.

I would not write off either Victor Ludorum or Sottsass, both are much better than what they showed yesterday.

The fillies Group 3 event was won by Tropbeau, who was given a good ride by jockey Mikael Barzalona.  Khayzaraan, who prior to the race,  I thought was the biggest danger to Tropbeau, ran too freely in front, she stopped very quickly when asked to quicken passing the two furlong from home marker, and eventually finished last.  It was though a game effort by Tropbeau, who stayed the trip well, she will have a solid chance of winning the French 1,000 guineas in about 3 weeks time.

Racing again today in France at Saint Cloud, Cherbourg, Marseille and Vincennes.  So hopefully I can find a winner.  It was announced yesterday that racing in the UK will not return before the 1st of June, hopefully the government will be satisfied that all the boxes will be ticked regarding safety and social distancing.  It will resume behind closed doors, hopefully that will not be for too long, but the return of racegoers will depend on the current pandemic. And nobody has any clear idea on how long that will last.

More later.

The latest from France, is that racing goes ahead tomorrow.  4 meetings are scheduled. Toulouse, Longchamp , Vichy and  Compiegne, with some really useful prospects set to line up at Longchamp.  Victor Ludorum will head the market in the 11.55, the Prix de Fontainebleau, which is a group 3 event, is ran over 7f and 209 yards.  Victor Ludorum won his last race, a group 1 back in October 2019.  He had two of his rivals, Ecrivan and Helter Skelter back in 4th and 5th that day.  If the favorite is ready, he should win again, as I thought he had a little bit in hand that day. Although Helter Skelter was a strong finisher, and was given a bit to do.  He might be the main threat.

At 12.25 the fillies line up.  Tropbeau and Khayzaraan looked really good fillies last year, it is difficult to split them.  The 7f and 209 yard event, carries the same status as the colts race, it will be a good race between the two, I have a slight preference for Tropbeau, although very marginal.  Hopefully we can see some good racing on Sky racing.  And should learn a bit for the big group 1 events later in the season.

The BHA seem optimistic that racing has a fair chance of resuming later this month.  I did mention a couple of horses yesterday, Arizona and Earthlight- both worth looking at in the first colts classic, hoped to be ran in the early part of June.  Having spoken to great friend of mine yesterday former jockey, Declan Murphy, who lives in Madrid now.  Declan raised the question of travel, and he has a valid point, hopefully both horses will be allowed to travel.  I did ask Declan how it has been over the last number of weeks, with the lockdown in Spain- only over the last day or so have people been allowed to exercise outside.  The Spanish seem to be winning the battle in reducing the spread, let’s hope many other countries are also starting to get things back to some kind of normality.

So as I mentioned, small stakes bets on the two I have mentioned-  at 10/1 and around 20/1 for Earthlight, who if he turns up on the day, could well be a quarter of those odds !

Resumption of Racing

Reading in the latest newspapers, regarding when racing will resume in the UK and Ireland- although  it is not totally clear, as it depends on the government. I am assuming  it will be behind closed doors for a good while, with the Irish government having already ruled that all sports events with  crowds of over 5000 being suspended for a number of months.

Having spoken to a number of connections who are based mainly in Newmarket.  The horses are being prepared as normal, with races in mind.  The two main ”classics” for three year old colts and fillies, the 1,000 and 2,000 guineas will  hopefully take place in early June.

Pinatubo is still short odds to win the colts race, currently around 10/11 generally. Not great value for me, so I have backed Arizona each way at 12/1.  The vibes I hear from the Ballydoyle camp, are that this colt is training well, and is well forward.  I do think he is a bit of value, currently priced around 10/1 with most firms.  Another colt I like in the race is Earthlight, who I have also backed on the exchanges at 22/1.  I am not certain this horse will line up, as he is in the same ownership as the favourite.

If Pinatubo, is not fully tuned and ready to go, Earthlight could well take his chance.  I hear Pinatubo is going ok, but is a horse that does not show everything at home, hence the reason he started his career at Wolverhampton on the all weather !

So for anyone who likes a bit of ante-post, my two selections are ‘value’ as I see it.

More in a few days.