30 April 2019

Great end to the month for my subscribers, Agent Basterfield was advised at 7/4 last night, backed into 6/5 he was a runaway winner of the 2.55 Brighton, taking the profit to over £800.00  for April,  not too bad for only £60 subscription !

Looking ahead to the rest of the day, the first day of Punchestown, it is really strong fields.  Klassical Deam 4.20, will be short odds to win, he should be hard to beat.

At Yarmouth Lake Volta will be hard to beat in the 4.15, he has had a run recently, and this is a step down in grade, he has been running in better races.  He also has Ryan Moore on top.

30 April 2019

Another good WINNER yesterday for my subscribers, Ranch Hand 4.45 Southwell was advised on Sunday evening at 11/8, he returned at 10/11 after strong support, you won’t see many easier winners, 12 lengths being eased down by young William Carver.

Today is the last day of the month, currently at +6 points (£600.00) so happy with that, a couple of seconds that should of won, Sapa Inca was very unlucky a couple of weeks ago, one of Joe Fanning’s few poor rides, he doesn’t make many errors, unfortunately it happens. Looking ahead to a good May, the flat season starts to get really going, on Saturday Madhmoon (advised at 20/1) back in March, each way -takes his chance in the 2000 Guineas at Newmarket.  Current odds of around 13/2, so hopefully he can run a big one, the race is very open, If I had a choice of opting for one of the Aiden O’Brian runners at the head of the betting, it would be Magna Grecia, I have reservations on Ten Sovereigns staying the mile, you really need to get the trip well, especially in a Group 1 over a straight mile, I could be wrong, but Magna Grecia will have no issues, he should be strong at the finish.

More later with a bit of analysis on today’s racing.

29 April 2019

Some decent cards today.  6 meetings including Ireland races at Naas.  At Wolverhampton Mokammal 4.35 can keep up the good form of the Sir Michael Stoute, his horses are in really rude health.  At Southwell in the 3.10 race, it looks a hot Novice stakes over 1 mile. The way Revamp ran on debut, he could be each way value at 7/1, obviously its his first try on the fibresand, so not totally sure he will handle the surface.  Native Silver is a winner at the track, he has drifted to around 6/1, he won quite well on debut, both have good chances each way.

I was taken by Waldgeist winning the Prix Ganay at Longchamp yesterday.  Although I do think Ghaiyyath (who I strongly fancied) ran a bit flat, he won ‘pulling a cart’ on his first run this year, he only beat Soliel Marin (4th ) by the same margin yesterday, when all out, plus he should of improved for his first run of the year, Soleil Marin was having his third run the last time they met ! I am putting a line through his run, he is still a horse to watch closely in Group 1 races, he may step up to 12f, which may suit him better.

Looking forward, some good racing midweek.  And the first Group 1 races for three year olds on Saturday and Sunday, its a good time of year, as the 2000 Guineas is always a guide to the Epsom Derby in June.

28 April 2019

A good winner for subscribers yesterday.  Moonlight Spirit Advised at 7/4 , bolted up at Leicester 3:25, by 9 lengths-heavily backed into 5/6, hopefully I can end the month well , already 4.6 points profit.

I also advised followers to back Getaway Trump 9/2 winner at Sandown 1:50.

Today has some really good racing from France At Longchamp.  I spoke to my old work colleague yesterday Laurent Barbarin, he will be advising on Sky Sports racing today.  We both agreed Epic Hero 1:35 and Ghaiyyath 3:25 look very hard to beat.  Laurent is also keen on Morgan Le Faye 2:50.  A good race in Navan at 4:15, Capri should beat stable companion Southern France, obviously it is their first run of 2019, but Ryan Moore has chosen Capri, he is also ahead on ratings.

More tomorrow.

27 April 2019

A bit of profit yesterday for Subscribers, I advised Ritchie Valens each way 1:40 at Doncaster , a good second at 11/1, I was prepared to back something at good odds against the winner, who did drift out to around 2/1, thankfully I didn’t lay him when he was 6/5 !

Hopefully followers backed Crystal Ocean who drifted out to almost odds on before running out a cosy winner at Sandown. I did mention I thought the favourite would win the 5:20 race at Chepstow ,  Jatiluwih managed to win under David Maxwell, he looked like winning easily before idling on the run in.

Today has lots of good racing.  The card at Sandown Park over jumps has really competitive fields.  The 1:50 is really competitive, the way top weight Getaway Trump won last time, I think he is the one to beat under 11.12 lb.  He will like the drier ground and is very honest. Altior looks a penalty kick at 3:00, hopefully he can end his season on a high.

At Leicester the 2:45 is a good race for only listed class.  Eqtidaar is a Group 1 winner over 6f, he would be my idea of the one to beat, the stable form is strong, I think he will be fine over the 7f as well.

The 2:40 at Haydock is a real head scratcher ! Tough race- I narrowed this race down to four with strong chances of winning , I might back a couple of them each way, Spirit Of Lund, Pour Me A Drink, Snow Storm and Ouzo, there is another couple of horses in it who I have marked up as future winners, but I don’t think today they will be ready.  The four I mentioned have all shown enough to be very competitive.

26 April 2019

Today has some good racing on the flat and jumping.  At Doncaster on the level racing gets under way at 1.40 , Forest Of Dean heads the market, he was given a poor ride last time, he should of won, he is the one to beat but at 6/5 he is not value for me.  I would be willing to lay him at those odds, as he takes on a lot of unexposed rivals with chances of turning him over.   At Chepstow I thought the 5.20 would go the way of the favourite, although his amateur jockey is very ordinary, he rides lots of winners on horses he owns, I don’t back a lot of horses when the rider gives me no confidence!

At Sandown a lot of decent horses running, Crystal Ocean returns to the track, he should be fit enough to win, the Stoute horses are in good form, the filly I mentioned yesterday Jubiloso was a cosy winner last night at Chelmsford for the yard.

25 April 2019

A good winner yesterday for my subscribers.  Old Jeroboam was advised at  9/4 yesterday morning, he did well to win the bumper at Southwell, he could be marked up a few pounds, as he raced wide, giving a lot of ground away.

Today a good number of meetings.  The second day of the Perth meeting, the ground will ride as good.  At Chelmsford this evening, the 6.00 has Hero Hero as short odds favourite, he will be hard to beat , although the unraced Jubiloso is well regarded and could give the favourite a race. Kempton has an evening jump meeting, small fields for the track as the ground is good to firm.  At Beverley the first race should go the way of Iva Go, a good second on debut, experience is worth a few pounds when taking on a lot of unraced rivals.

 

23 April 2019

A late post today.  Hopefully some followers may of backed Praceps at Plumpton and Hortzadar at Redcar yesterday, both won well, short odds but any winner is a good price !

Todays remaining meetings are all weather at Lingfield and Wolverhampton.  At Lingfield 6.25 Alnasherat runs in his first handicap, he either did not quite stay last time over 7f, or may of just needed the run.  It looks a well contested event, but this horse should be good enough to win, he has plenty of knee action, so I think he will be ok on the surface, he probably will not want fast ground on turf.

I am waiting for a couple of horses entered later in the week.  It all depends on the weather and opposition.

More tomorrow.

22 April 2019

I read last night that Persian King who I advised as an each way bet when 14/1 for next month’s 2,000 Guineas at Newmarket, is favoured to run in the French equivalent, well I backed him with a firm who were Non runner no bet, so hopefully any one who has already had a bit each way,  will have done likewise, it is not set in stone that he will run in France, he likes good or faster ground, so his trainer has said it depends on the weather.

On to today’s cards.  Lots of meetings , as expected for a bank holiday Monday.  At Plumpton, quick ground has led to small fields, the 1.50 has Zanzi Win, who won recently at the track, going for a follow up, his win that day was made a bit easier when his main threat unseated its rider three hurdles from home.  Praeceps has been mixing it with better opposition of late, this looks a good opportunity for him to get his head back in front again.  The final race of the day at the track, has only two lining up.  Darebin comes off a poor run 30 days ago, he will need to put that effort behind him, he has been running well at a higher level prior to that, the trip of 17f should be ok for both of them although the faster ground will suit King Cnut well, and he won well at the track on his first try over fences. A spin of a coin to decide who wins !

At Redcar on the flat Hortzader 3.05 should follow up from his recent win, he had fair form in France, he bolted up last time over 8f, today’s drop back to 7f should not be a major concern.

21 April 2019

Plenty of racing today.  With the ground drying out at most tracks, Market Rasen will have good ground, they do a fantastic job of keeping the track in perfect condition, lush grass, which is reported to ride like a carpet.  They have a really good watering system.

Racing gets started at 2.00 with a competitive Novice hurdle.  Mon Port had his own way last time when winning at the track, he was given a very good ride by today’s rider,  claimer Fergus Gregory.

I have been really impressed by this talented rider, he is excellent value for his 5lb allowance.  His chief rival today is Al Kherb who was pitched into a good handicap last time when well beaten at Ascot, he will not mind the quicker ground, it is hard to choose between the two of them, the Olly Murphy yard are in better form of late.  Small fields at Plumpton, He’s A Goer could well give Champion jockey Richard Johnson a winner in the 4.30, a good second last time, he has a solid chance in what looks a  less competitive event.

The news yesterday that big race favourite,  Too Darn Hot, has not yet recovered from his setback, and will be unable to run in the  2,000 Guineas in the first week of May.  Hopefully followers took my advise ( 20th March post) and had a bit each way on Persian King at 14/1 and Madhmoon 20/1.  Persian King is now 4/1 second favourite, he won easily in his trial in France, Madhmoon is currently 14/1 after a decent second on soft ground in his trial.  Both should give a good account of themselves if they run, I backed them both when they were good value. Too Darn Hot has an issue with a splint, which needs plenty of time to recover.  Hopefully he will be ready for some of the group races a bit later in the year, although he is in the Derby, he looked like a horse that was very speedy to me, I’m not convinced he will be as good over 12f.