31 July 2018

Competitive fields today at the two main race meetings.  Goodwood and Galway have good prize money on offer, which is good, it does make it difficult to find a winner though!

The main race at Goodwood is the Qatar Goodwood Cup Stakes (Group 1) at 3:35.  The hot favourite is Stradivarius, he won the race last year, and arrives with two good wins in 2018, the most recent being the Ascot Gold Cup.  He looks to have a favourites chance today, at 4/7- I will let him run, although he is the likely winner.  Torcedor is around 9/2, unfortunately only 7 start, so each way is only 2 places.  I do think he is the one that could give the favourite something to think about.

The most intriguing race on the card though, is the 2.25.  The Group 2 event for two year olds.  If you can find the winner of this race, you are doing well.  Some really nice colts and a decent gelding line up in this 7f race.  If I was having an interest bet, it would be Drogon each way, he was impressive on his recent win at Haydock, where he did a very fast time.  If he acts as well on this right handed track, and is allowed a soft lead, he could be hard to peg back.

30 July 2018

With rain over the weekend it is best to bet with caution over the next few days.  I was pleased to see Benbatl win a Group 1 race yesterday in Munich.  I think it is Saeed Bin Suroor’s first Group 1 in Europe in 2018. So far this season his horses have not matched the other salaried trainer for Godolphin.  Charlie Appleby has had a pretty good season, winning a Derby and a few Group races as well, he had a Group 3 winner in France on Saturday, two year old filly Beyond Recall.

The big meetings this week are Goodwood, which starts tomorrow.  Galway in Ireland starts today, Galway must have had a good amount of rain, the going is yielding on the jumps track and soft on the flat track, trying to find a winner at the meeting looks as difficult as ever.

29 July 2018

Great ride by James Doyle yesterday on Poets Word in the Group 1 King George V1 And Queen Elizabeth Stakes at Ascot.  He did not panic when Crystal Ocean,  ridden by William Buick got a length or more turning into the straight, Doyle admitted after the race that he got trapped behind Coronet, he was following her, as he did think she would bring him forward into the race, surprisingly she didn’t, Buick rode a good race, he did nothing wrong on Crystal Ocean, but Poet’s Word was very willing under Doyle- responding well to pressure, he got up close home to win in a photograph.

Another jockey who rode a peach of a race was Silvestre de Sousa on Victory Command 4:15 Ascot.  He stole the race, given a very soft lead, he got the fractions right, asking his mount at the right moment to go and win his race. I did think the race would be between Nate The Great and Master Brewer, both who made late headway, Master Brewer was given an impossible task by his jockey, I did not understand the ride from Ryan Moore, who makes very few mistakes in a race, but this ride was one of them !

A fair amount of rain about, so betting with extreme caution is a must over the next few days.

 

28 July 2018

Just heard that Cracksman is a non runner in the Group 1 at Ascot 3.40.  I guess the ground is not ideal for him.  It is still a good race, with Poets Word and Crystal Ocean heading the market for Sir Michael Stoute’s powerful stable.  Stoute has a good record in the race, not sure which way it will go, it is not exactly between the front two in the betting.  Coronet is a very useful filly, she could shake up the colt’s.  If I was having a bet in the race, it would be Poet’s Word.  Lot’s of other good racing, currently dry weather at a lot of the tracks, hopefully it will be not too soft at Newmarket, the track does drain very well, chalk based tracks do seem to drain much better than clay.

I will try and put an each way horse on in the next hour or so, always good to try and give followers a nice each way horse on a Saturday.

27 July 2018

After numerous thunder showers at a number of racecourses today, ground changes saw a few outsiders winning.  Ascot seemed to be ok for the most of the early races.  Newmarket evening meeting had heavy showers.  I was going to back one in a later race at Newmarket, but did not get involved.  On watered ground, the going can become very false underfoot, I always try to avoid having a bet, as it is the fast way to the poor house!

Tomorrow will be extra hard to find winners.  Saturday is the toughest day of the week.  Hopefully I can find a winner, a number of horses I follow are declared to run.  One horse I follow is Cracksman,  he could get underfoot conditions he is best at , with rain falling at Ascot.  It would be nice to see him come back to his best for jockey Rab Havlin, he takes over tomorrow  from suspended Frankie Dettori.

 

 

 

 

26 July 2018

I have been watching a lot of racing today.  Goddess was a very below par in Ireland in a Group 3 6.35 Leopardstown.  When they run as poor as she did, and have been backed into 1/2 fav, it is too bad to be true, the performance is clearly below stable expectations.  I thought she was a penalty kick, she bolted up in her maiden last time.  Today when asked to go, she stopped in about 10 strides.

I always find July quite a difficult month, a few horses seem to run below par, for whatever reason, it’s never totally clear.  Some fillies can come in season, especially when the weather is warm, this can result in a below par effort on race day.

The weekend sees the big race at Ascot on Saturday.  The King George and Queen Elizabeth Diamond Stakes (Group 1)  for three year olds and upwards over 12f.  Frankie Dettori will miss the meeting, he had his 10 day ban reduced to 6, on appeal.  Hopefully he will be refreshed on his return, missing rides though will hurt, especially if Cracksman or Coronet wins the big race, as Dettori would of had the choice of them.  It has not been confirmed that Cracksman will run, Coronet looks very likely to take her chance, in what looks a race to watch closely, it is wide open for me, so I won’t have a bet in it.

25 July 2018

Another Winner yesterday for my subscribers.  Piece Of History won well at Chelmsford 8.10, he defied a poor draw (13).  He returned at 6/4, so very happy with that.  Well ridden by David Egan, who is in an important stage of his riding career.  He was champion apprentice last year, so riding winners when your claim has gone, especially when given chances for big yard’s like Saeed Bin Suroor, is a big plus.  I hope he continues to get plenty of rides on some nice horses, as he rides well, and he has no real weight problems, at the moment.

Very firm ground today at Bath, I fancied Rastacap in the 5.00 , but she was a below par 4th.  Possibly the firm/hard ground was just too quick for her to run her best.

24 July 2018

Plenty of racing today.  The meetings at Newcastle and Chelmsford on the all weather have plenty of declared runners today.  Lots of trainers make use of the all weather tracks,  plenty of trainers from all over the UK, and a number of trainers from Ireland also use the all weather tracks in the UK,  as well as Dundalk in Ireland.

As the heatwave continues, small fields are very relevant.  I have always believed racehorses do not really like very fast ground on the turf, the same rule applies when the ground is very soft/heavy in mid winter. It can be a slog sometimes when it is heavy, it is usually a case of acting on it better than others, rather than enjoying it.

I like the look of one today at Chelmsford.  With no ground change issues, hopefully it can win for my subscribers and give another day of profit.

23 July 2018

Late blog post today.  Quite a busy day.  I did not have a bet today, I was going to back a horse at one of the evening meetings,  if rain had arrived.  Cartmel day meeting did have some rain, not sure how much it affected the ground conditions.

Judging by the weather forecast over the next few days or so, dry weather for most parts.  Hopefully a drop of rain will arrive, as most of the tracks are badly in need of some natural rain, watering systems are pretty good,  at many tracks these days, but if rain arrives it can cause false ground, especially on watered racecourses.   Sadly that is when you get a higher number of horses being injured.