Update: 3,55pm

Pepys (Wolverhampton 2.40) was just out of the money , he was 4th after having every chance, still as it was a race paying on 4 places, the each way bet was ok, tiny loss, he was just not good enough.   And the double has gone down, but the ride Tamkeen got by Jim Crowley was a shocker ! He went flat to the boards with PJ Mcdonald who was on Valdolobo, both horses understandably folded, Tamkeen was the first to stop just inside the 2f marker, Valdolobo did really well to be third in the end.  What Jim Crowley and P J Mcdonald were thinking is a mystery, complete brain dead rides by both of them.

I have backed Mootasadir in a single bet, I just think he will be very hard to beat, he is short odds but I think he will win.

The selection I put on last night Pepys as an each way bet is still around the 9/2 mark with most firms, hopefully he can give me a decent priced winner for the end of another profitable month.

Todays free tips are as follows:

Horse: Tamkeen

Time: 3:30 Thirsk

Current Odds: Evens (without fav)

I am backing this horse in a double with Mootasadir 4:25 Wolverhampton, who is around 4/6.  It works out at around 9/4 for the bet.

I have decided to go without the favourite ( Bacacarat) so Tamkeen is currently evens without him in the field.  Tamkeen was promising at two, he was second on his last two runs, he ran well on both of those runs, and as he is a big horse, he can do better at three, he usually likes to race prominently, which suits horses at Thirsk, I think he has really good chance of winning.  Of rivals, The Navigator is probably the one to beat , he ran well on his only run at 2, he will likely need more than today’s sharp 1 mile trip to be fully seen at his best, Valdolobo showed promise at 2, he has a chance, although he has to overcome a poor draw.

My other selection Mootasadir is short priced , but won really well on his first run, he is a big horse who can only improve for that run, I think he will be very hard to beat.

Another good day, Award Winning managed to wear down the leader inside the last furlong to win at Wetherby, advised at 11/10, she probably didn’t beat much to win, but she is so well bred, it has put a lot of value on her for when she finally goes to stud. A win for a filly with such a good pedigree is very important for her, even though it was not a great race.

I am putting a horse on for racing tomorrow, it’s on the all weather track , so no change of going issues. A fair amount of rain is forecast in the U.K, so I will wait until lunchtime before deciding if I am backing something on the grass. I will update around 12.30-1.00pm on Monday.

Mondays Free tip is as follows:

Horse: Pepys

Time: 2:40 Wolverhampton

Current Odds: 9/2 EW

I am backing this horse each way, he won last time, rallying gamely over 7f at Newcastle that day.  He has gone up 4lb in the handicap for that win, this horse is no superstar but this is an average race, he has won over 7f on a synthetic track, is well drawn and his jockey knows him well, to add to those positives, his trainers horses are running well at the moment.   Of rivals, lots with chances, it’s quite hard to pick the main threat, Ubla has fair form in this type of race, a second place at the track two starts back was a decent effort, another performance of that level , puts him right in the mix.

An excellent day yesterday, both my tips won.  Proshema who I put on the update was heavily backed from 6/4-4/6, before bolting up by 11 lengths!  And last night, Hamada won easily 11/10- 4/5, both horses are worth following.

Todays Free tip is as follows:

Horse: Award Winning

Time: 2:40 Wetherby

Current Odds: 11/10

This well bred filly was very green on her first run over 1mile, it was a good maiden she ran in at Newmarket, I think she can take a big step forward today, and over today’s 10f she can be tough to beat.  This filly did all her best work in the latter stages of the race at Newmarket, today looks a good opportunity to get off the mark.  Her stables horses are running well, and she can take this weak novice stakes.  Of rivals, Sailing Home showed fair form last season, she is the main threat, Lady Annalee is unraced, she is the unknown quantity, she could be dangerous, especially if she is supported in the betting.

Update:

I am backing Proschema 1.30 Haydock.  Currently around 6/4 , a good winner over 10f on soft ground recently, he is fit and should stay the extra 2f today.  A good jockey riding, and the stable are in good form, he has a bit to find on ratings with Licheen Castle, who is the one to beat.

A good run yesterday from Vintager to be second at Sandown , backed each way at 7/1, it gives a small bit of profit.

Todays free tip is as follows:

Horse: Hamada

Time:7.30 Wolverhampton

Current Odds: 11/10

Although absent for well over a year off the track, this horse will be ready for today.  He is lightly raced, winning easily on his last run as a two year old by 6l.  The step up to 12f should fine, he won over 10f at two on a very stiff track. The stables horses are flying,  and he can win this open handicap, before progressing. Of rivals, Arab Moon has good form on the all weather, he has had a run this season and could well be the one to beat. Star of The East ran ok last time on the all weather, she probably wants further than 12f to be at her best, and her best form so far has been on grass.

I will do an update around 1.30pm, as a couple of horses running are of interest.  A fair amount of rain is forecast and ground conditions are likely to be changing,  so I have gone for a safe option as ground issues are not going to alter at Wolverhampton.

Today’s free tip is as follows:

Horse: Vintager

Time:1:50 Sandown

Current Odds: 7/1 EW

I am backing this horse each way, he won on his first start last year (beating numerous subsequent winners) , he then raced in Group races, and was not beaten far on each occasion.  He will handle the likely softer ground than currently – Good -good to soft in places, a fair amount of rain is forecast.   The race today is a decent handicap, but much will be a fair bit easier than group level.  I think he has a decent each way chance.  Of rivals, Kings Shield has won 2-2, both on the all weather surfaces, he has to prove he will handle cut in the ground, although his astute trainer would not run him unless he thinks he will be ok on it, but he tackles a few unknowns today and at short odds,  I am willing to take him on, Merlin Magic has a good racing weight, should handle the ground ok, and has a live chance of being in the shake up.

For anyone who saw the bizarre incident at Punchestown on Tuesday, when Paul Townend decided to not jump the last fence on his horse Al Boum Photo, he was leading and looked like winning, when he tried to go round the fence, carrying the horse challenging him on his inside, jockey Robbie Power managed to steer Finians Oscar who was on his inside round the wing of the fence, but Paul Townend crashed into the plastic wing as his horse tried to go round it, fortunately Townend was ok, he later said he heard a ‘shout’ to go around the fence !

I don’t know why he made his crazy manoeuvre, I’m not convinced of his explanation, only he knows that, he did though cost connections a Grade 1 winner, and punters a lot of money. It was good though to see him bounce back and ride a couple of winners yesterday, he gave Next Destination a very polished ride to win. He looks to have put Tuesdays incident behind him.

Todays Free tip is as follows:

Horse: Remind Me Later

Time:6:50 Kempton

Current Odds: 9/4

This gelding ran well last time when second, his form has been consistent this season and he acts well on decent ground, his jockey knows him well and a lot of his rivals have been out of form.  Of rivals, Southfield Theatre has dropped to a very low mark, if he can recapture his best form he is thrown in at the weights, but his form is not encouraging, Bugsy Malone is a course winner, has a low weight and has a solid chance if he can find some of his old form.

Todays Free tip is as follows:

Horse: Scorpion Sid

Time: 2:35 Perth

Current Odds: 6/4

I like this progressive gelding.  He has won his two starts under rules this season and is improving with every race, he is 7lb below Callet Mad on ratings, so has to show better than his rating to win, I think he is capable of doing that and winning this, he will like the cut in the ground, I don’t think the step up to 3 miles will pose any problems.  Of rivals, Callet Mad has done little wrong, he was out of his depth last time at Cheltenham, but is the main danger to my selection. Knockrobin has been consistent, and has a chance, although I don’t think he will be quite good enough today.

Update: 3:40pm

A lot of rain has fallen at Ludlow, I am not having a bet.  So no tip advised today, more tomorrow.